What are the Odds?

Discussion in 'Chastity and orgasm denial' started by Jamie's-Locked, Oct 5, 2017.

Random Thread
  1. Jamie's-Locked
    Offline

    Jamie's-Locked Long term member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2016
    Messages:
    215
    Likes Received:
    160
    Trophy Points:
    53
    Gender:
    Male
    Location: (Country, Region - and perhaps even City?):
    Memphis TN
    Local Time:
    8:16 AM
    Call it topping from the bottom if you like, I would consider it communication. I suggested a game to Ms K/H this evening quite hesitantly. I wasn't sure how she would take it but once she heard me out, she smiled and told me she liked the idea.
    I've got three pair of identically appearing keys from 3 different integrally locked devices. Two of them fit the one I'm locked in until Ms K/H decides. I suggested to her that since that means six keys, two fit the device, that she keep one and we put the rest in a safe place of her keeping.
    The game is that, once a month (or whatever period she likes,) we put the keys in a container that I can't see through and draw one. If it unlocks the device, I'm allowed out for whatever period she allows. If it doesn't, it goes back with the others and we try again next time.
    Quite a mind-fuck for me and a deeper release to her. If she decides a month, it would more than likely become a monthly thing. I suggested to her that it could lead to me being locked for months/years if my luck isn't good.
    SO, for the immediate future, the possibility of my being released from this steel cage has become a 1 in 5 chance on a monthly basis.
    Random request for anyone good with numbers, what might the odds lead to occasional release with 1 in 5?
     
    DGently likes this.
  2. Joroincharge
    Offline

    Joroincharge Lock em up - 24/7/365!!

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2009
    Messages:
    4,143
    Likes Received:
    2,429
    Trophy Points:
    143
    Gender:
    Female
    Location: (Country, Region - and perhaps even City?):
    England
    Local Time:
    2:16 PM
    Odds are slightly (51.2%) against any release in three months, substantially (59.04%) in favour of your getting one in four.
     
    SubVerity likes this.
  3. Jamie's-Locked
    Offline

    Jamie's-Locked Long term member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2016
    Messages:
    215
    Likes Received:
    160
    Trophy Points:
    53
    Gender:
    Male
    Location: (Country, Region - and perhaps even City?):
    Memphis TN
    Local Time:
    8:16 AM
    Hmmm, good thing I'm patient. I hope the odds are at least that.
     
  4. Jamie's-Locked
    Offline

    Jamie's-Locked Long term member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2016
    Messages:
    215
    Likes Received:
    160
    Trophy Points:
    53
    Gender:
    Male
    Location: (Country, Region - and perhaps even City?):
    Memphis TN
    Local Time:
    8:16 AM
    Errr, that does take into consideration that the picked key goes back into the pot for next month doesn't it?
     
    Joroincharge likes this.
  5. filltee
    Offline

    filltee Junior Member

    Joined:
    May 21, 2010
    Messages:
    3,388
    Likes Received:
    2,510
    Trophy Points:
    143
    Gender:
    Male
    Location: (Country, Region - and perhaps even City?):
    Sheffield. South Yorkshire UK
    Local Time:
    2:16 PM
    With replacement of the previously drawn key the probability of any desired single outcome, namely the one key that will unlock your cage, is a constant 1/5 or 20% or as less precisely but often written a 1 in 5 probability of securing a release.

    Unless you interfere with the draw in some way that is by either reducing or adding to the number of keys that will or will not open the lock the likelihood wil remain constant if the key is replaced before the following draw.

    It is quite conceivable that with one draw per month with a liklihood of success of 1/5 you could have already had your last orgasm. Then again the next any number you like could also conceivably result in a successful draw.

    Once when marking a paper on probability one (very misguided) student quite clearly stated that the probability of winning the lottery is 50:50 the reason given for this was that you either win or you dont.. so there are only two outcomes.... Thus confirming the speculative theory that one can not educate pork.
     
    boisub likes this.
  6. Jamie's-Locked
    Offline

    Jamie's-Locked Long term member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2016
    Messages:
    215
    Likes Received:
    160
    Trophy Points:
    53
    Gender:
    Male
    Location: (Country, Region - and perhaps even City?):
    Memphis TN
    Local Time:
    8:16 AM
    The possibility of my final orgasm of course is my concern. As the old song goes, "If it weren't for bad luck, I'd have no luck at all? Gloom, despair, agony for me."
     
  7. mcfeely
    Offline

    mcfeely Long term member

    Joined:
    Oct 28, 2015
    Messages:
    335
    Likes Received:
    292
    Trophy Points:
    73
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    Medic
    Local Time:
    9:16 AM
    since I like to "win" at any cost, I would mark the key so while its still her game, I would maintain control. She doesn't have to know so she will get great enjoyment out of the game as well as the mystery of will he or won't he get the key but you have a fall back position if the game gets out of control.
     
  8. Jamie's-Locked
    Offline

    Jamie's-Locked Long term member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2016
    Messages:
    215
    Likes Received:
    160
    Trophy Points:
    53
    Gender:
    Male
    Location: (Country, Region - and perhaps even City?):
    Memphis TN
    Local Time:
    8:16 AM
    To me, "Marking" the keys wouldn't be fair to the game or to my promise. Besides, I told her that we needed to find a container to draw from where I couldn't see the keys anyway, so that pretty much makes that idea unnecessary.
    Besides, the game getting out of control leads to the anxiety/high of being out of control of my orgasms is part of the game for me.
     
  9. mcfeely
    Offline

    mcfeely Long term member

    Joined:
    Oct 28, 2015
    Messages:
    335
    Likes Received:
    292
    Trophy Points:
    73
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    Medic
    Local Time:
    9:16 AM
    I couldn't do it. I have too strong a need to maintain absolute control over myself and surroundings ( probably carry over from my job where a mistake would be really bad). I would have to find a way to have ultimate control of the outcome.
     
  10. Joroincharge
    Offline

    Joroincharge Lock em up - 24/7/365!!

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2009
    Messages:
    4,143
    Likes Received:
    2,429
    Trophy Points:
    143
    Gender:
    Female
    Location: (Country, Region - and perhaps even City?):
    England
    Local Time:
    2:16 PM
    Yes it does. If the picked key does not go back it's 60% chance you'll be out after 3 months, 80% in 4, 100% in 5.
     
    slave_m likes this.
  11. Mash2214
    Offline

    Mash2214 Locked today, tomorrow, forever

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2013
    Messages:
    3,697
    Likes Received:
    9,506
    Trophy Points:
    143
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    Business Owner, servant
    Location: (Country, Region - and perhaps even City?):
    Canada
    Local Time:
    7:16 AM
    Since the unsuccessful key is put back into the container. Your odds never change you have a 20% chance of being unlocked for the amount of time She decides. 1 minute, or maybe 10. Minutes. Everything e you draw a key you have an 80% chance of getting the wrong key.

    My advice is be Very Very Nice to your spouse because you may be Locked for a long time unless she wants you free.
     
    Jamie's-Locked likes this.
  12. Jamie's-Locked
    Offline

    Jamie's-Locked Long term member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2016
    Messages:
    215
    Likes Received:
    160
    Trophy Points:
    53
    Gender:
    Male
    Location: (Country, Region - and perhaps even City?):
    Memphis TN
    Local Time:
    8:16 AM
    That sounds like very good advice that I fully intend to follow. Apparently I need to see if I can quietly and very subtly suggest to her that, if the key doesn't fit this time, put it aside. (I wonder if I can put THAT off?)
     
    Mash2214 likes this.
  13. filltee
    Offline

    filltee Junior Member

    Joined:
    May 21, 2010
    Messages:
    3,388
    Likes Received:
    2,510
    Trophy Points:
    143
    Gender:
    Male
    Location: (Country, Region - and perhaps even City?):
    Sheffield. South Yorkshire UK
    Local Time:
    2:16 PM
    I want the head-fuck of having no control I used to think I wanted access to a key on the honour system, one I would not use without permission ....but could. Its better without that fall back key access. Dire emergencies I have always had a hacksaw. With the integral locks like the HT has hacksawing my way out would be possible but much more difficult and far more expensive than just replacing a padlock. (which does remind me of an incident)

    With the one we having made access should be even more difficult to attain as I wont be able to buy a new A-ring off the shelf. The head-fuck that will provide ought to be even better. If she lived nearer of course there would be no need for me to have a key at all which would be the most preferable set up. Oh I want access but making sure I have not got it is even sweeter.

    We're currently trying to get something working with the noke padlock but not got there yet., their office is in the US and phoning for guidance is proving difficult
     
  14. Joroincharge
    Offline

    Joroincharge Lock em up - 24/7/365!!

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2009
    Messages:
    4,143
    Likes Received:
    2,429
    Trophy Points:
    143
    Gender:
    Female
    Location: (Country, Region - and perhaps even City?):
    England
    Local Time:
    2:16 PM
    That's right. You have an 80% chance of wrong key each time. So chance of wrong key twice running = 80% x 80% = 64%; three times running 51.2%, 4 times running 40.96%, and so on.
     
  15. Doug Scibor
    Offline

    Doug Scibor Long term member

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2016
    Messages:
    628
    Likes Received:
    1,407
    Trophy Points:
    123
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    Technical
    Location: (Country, Region - and perhaps even City?):
    Atlanta, GA USA
    Local Time:
    9:16 AM
    For fun, I programmed a random number generator using your five key method with 20% odds of being released for an orgasm with one attempt each month. Here is how they came out based on my model run.

    1st orgasm - 4 months
    2nd orgasm - 1 month
    3rd orgasm - 1 month
    4th orgasm - 1 month
    5th orgasm - 6 months
    6th orgasm - 2 months
    7th orgasm - 6 months
    8th orgasm - 9 months
    9th orgasm - 1 month
    10th orgasm - 4 months

    If you had this outcome, in 35 months (just under three years) you would have had 10 unlocks for orgasm or roughly 3 per year. Going from a steady one a month to a sudden desert of six months between #4 and #5 would be difficult.

    Having back to back windows of 6 and then 9 months would be a world I have never experienced and you could only hope your KH was a skilled cock tease to keep you sane.

    I wish you luck.
     
  16. Mash2214
    Offline

    Mash2214 Locked today, tomorrow, forever

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2013
    Messages:
    3,697
    Likes Received:
    9,506
    Trophy Points:
    143
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    Business Owner, servant
    Location: (Country, Region - and perhaps even City?):
    Canada
    Local Time:
    7:16 AM
    It's all in how you play with the numbers. The Odds are definetly not in his favour of getting out for any length of time. Should be Fun LoL
     
  17. Mash2214
    Offline

    Mash2214 Locked today, tomorrow, forever

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2013
    Messages:
    3,697
    Likes Received:
    9,506
    Trophy Points:
    143
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    Business Owner, servant
    Location: (Country, Region - and perhaps even City?):
    Canada
    Local Time:
    7:16 AM
    It is also very possible that you have ZERO in 36 months. Just to make it interesting. :(
     
  18. Jamie's-Locked
    Offline

    Jamie's-Locked Long term member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2016
    Messages:
    215
    Likes Received:
    160
    Trophy Points:
    53
    Gender:
    Male
    Location: (Country, Region - and perhaps even City?):
    Memphis TN
    Local Time:
    8:16 AM
    When I spoke to her about that a bit earlier this evening, she observed the same possibility. I also learned that I might as well submit. I'm locked for life now. I can hope for an occasional release for whatever but, for the time being, it will literally be the luck of the draw.
     
  19. filltee
    Offline

    filltee Junior Member

    Joined:
    May 21, 2010
    Messages:
    3,388
    Likes Received:
    2,510
    Trophy Points:
    143
    Gender:
    Male
    Location: (Country, Region - and perhaps even City?):
    Sheffield. South Yorkshire UK
    Local Time:
    2:16 PM
    Locked for life with the right partner I would not have an issue with accepting permanently locked permanently controlled both are ok permanently denied I still have some doubts about. But with the right partner I think I'm ready to start working towards it at least....provided it is something she want too.
     
  20. masohedo
    Offline

    masohedo Long term member

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2017
    Messages:
    256
    Likes Received:
    334
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    Retired
    Local Time:
    8:16 AM
    Great system!
    There was a time I got twice per week teasing sessions and each time my KH and I wrote a number from 1 to 10 . If it was the same I got an orgasm,if not, I was invited to keep on trying!
    I never knew the outcome until the end of the session and after endless edges.
    Lol
     
  21. Evgeny
    Offline

    Evgeny Dominant Switch

    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2016
    Messages:
    79
    Likes Received:
    22
    Trophy Points:
    8
    Gender:
    Male
    Local Time:
    3:16 PM
    Being a statistician, I wanted to provide some more hard data for your play. I have looked at a period of 12 months and computed the odds for having N releases during that period.

    So the chance for a certain number of releases is giving by the probability density function of the binomial distribution:

    equal.png

    We wee that having two or three releases is not impossible, having a release every single time seems out of the question, though. The most likely outcome is two releases per year.

    So how likely is it to have N releases or less?

    less.png

    So of course it is 100% chance of having 12 or less releases in a year. The above plot is interesting for your keyholder. The chance of you being denied all but two orgasms is like 70%.

    Then for you, the chance of having N releases or more:

    more.png

    Your chance of having two releases or more is like 60%. Having four or more releases brings this down to 12%.

    It seems like you have build a game around like two or three releases a year!
     
    Jamie's-Locked likes this.
  22. Jamie's-Locked
    Offline

    Jamie's-Locked Long term member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2016
    Messages:
    215
    Likes Received:
    160
    Trophy Points:
    53
    Gender:
    Male
    Location: (Country, Region - and perhaps even City?):
    Memphis TN
    Local Time:
    8:16 AM
    I suppose I need to hope she'll allow me to masturbate and the coin toss for the orgasm to be in my favor then.
     
  23. Jamie's-Locked
    Offline

    Jamie's-Locked Long term member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2016
    Messages:
    215
    Likes Received:
    160
    Trophy Points:
    53
    Gender:
    Male
    Location: (Country, Region - and perhaps even City?):
    Memphis TN
    Local Time:
    8:16 AM
    Well, tomorrow (Saturday the 11th) was going to be my 3rd month locked. Ms K/H decided tonight was the night for our first key drawing. She did let me verify that one of the keys would unlock my device then put all 5 in a small closed tin and shook them. She tried to hold it up high enough I couldn't see, so I turned around so she knew I couldn't see the keys.
    TL:DR, first round of the "Game" as she called it bought me another month of lockup. I'm excited and disappointed at the same time. ;p
     
    Penney likes this.
  24. filltee
    Offline

    filltee Junior Member

    Joined:
    May 21, 2010
    Messages:
    3,388
    Likes Received:
    2,510
    Trophy Points:
    143
    Gender:
    Male
    Location: (Country, Region - and perhaps even City?):
    Sheffield. South Yorkshire UK
    Local Time:
    2:16 PM
    Ah ..excited and disappointed at the same time. A true Headfuck.

    Headfucks. They come in many guises but they are a major part of the game for me. Maybe not for everyone but they are for me. Im wish you many more.
     
    Jamie's-Locked likes this.
  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.
    Dismiss Notice