Covid-19

Discussion in 'Off topic discussions' started by PouchPantyLover, Mar 18, 2020.

  1. Bonobo
    Offline

    Bonobo Long term member

    Joined:
    May 4, 2018
    Messages:
    270
    Likes Received:
    446
    Trophy Points:
    73
    Gender:
    Male
    Local Time:
    12:49 AM
    I just brought my sister a half face respirator and 2 extra cartridges. She is a nurse and the hospital she works at is already out of n95 masks. We either flatten the curve now or the loss of life will be staggering.
     
  2. luckyhubby83
    Offline

    luckyhubby83 Long term member

    Joined:
    Feb 21, 2018
    Messages:
    650
    Likes Received:
    716
    Trophy Points:
    103
    Gender:
    Male
    Local Time:
    11:49 PM
    i truly believe this to be the case.
    so many are asymptomatic, which spreads the virus faster
    the death rate as a % is WAY over the actual death rate. this is a huge burden on the healthcare system but not the society killer that all the talking heads make it out to be.

    if we have 25,493 reported cases. and 307 deaths thats 1.2% mortality rate
    now if we have 10X as many infected as reported(very plausible as so many sick are turned away from testing as they dont have a fever) the death rate is only .12%. still far higher than the flu, but not as bad when you do the comparison of 330 mil people in the USA

    i believe that the infection rate is many magnitude more than 10 fold. maybe 100 cases infected per 1 reported.
    so many americans, myself included avoid hospitals like the plague because they are so blasted expensive. couple this with the fear of contracting the CV if you go to the hospital, and its no wonder we are under reporting the # of americans infected.

    if the above is true, this means we will have a society that has had the virus, overcame it and are able to go back to business as usual much quicker than expected. no matter how it ends, there will be both sides saying "i told you so"
    the only thing thats certain right now is a hell of a lot of people are unemployed and many will remain unemployed as the small businesses they worked for or owned, will have been pushed under by being shut down for weeks on end and when re opening, with less patrons due to lingering fear.
     
    slappy likes this.
  3. chaste45
    Offline

    chaste45 Junior Member

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2008
    Messages:
    15
    Likes Received:
    35
    Trophy Points:
    13
    Gender:
    Male
    Location: (Country, Region - and perhaps even City?):
    Glasgow
    Local Time:
    4:49 AM
    Very good summary it would be good if this kind of information on hot liquids was made more widely known and regular drinking.
     
  4. Shimone
    Offline

    Shimone Long term member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2011
    Messages:
    595
    Likes Received:
    331
    Trophy Points:
    73
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    management consultant
    Location: (Country, Region - and perhaps even City?):
    Singapore
    Local Time:
    5:49 AM
    Nothing against filltee, but it is the worst summary there is as it is fake news !

    There is no way anyone without a lab-test could make any test for corona !

    "Experts suggest doing this simple verification every morning: Breathe in deeply and hold your breath for 10 seconds. If this can be done without coughing, without difficulty, this shows that there is no fibrosis in the lungs, indicating the absence of infection. It is recommended to do this control every morning to help detect infection."

    If you should fail this test there is a good chance that you have an infection in a very advanced stage. There is no way this could detect early stages or symptom free infections !

    "The virus hates heat and dies if it is exposed to temperatures greater than 80°F (27°C). Therefore hot drinks such as infusions, broths or simply hot water should be consumed abundantly during the day. These hot liquids kill the virus and are easy to ingest."

    Wrong ! To kill the virus by temperature you need 60°C ! Therefor there is no way killing the virus by heat once it is inside you - your body has to fight it off.

    "Ensure that your mouth and throat are always wet, never DRY. You should drink a sip of water at least every 15 minutes. WHY? Even when the virus enters water or other liquids through the mouth, it will get flushed through the oesophagus directly into the stomach where gastric acids destroy the virus. If there is not enough water, the virus can pass into the trachea and from there to the lungs, where it is very dangerous."

    Wrong again - You breath the virus in so it does not matter if there is somewhat more moisture in your throat or not.
     
  5. chaste45
    Offline

    chaste45 Junior Member

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2008
    Messages:
    15
    Likes Received:
    35
    Trophy Points:
    13
    Gender:
    Male
    Location: (Country, Region - and perhaps even City?):
    Glasgow
    Local Time:
    4:49 AM

    Thank you

    I don't normally listen to online stuff or rumour.

    Appreciate the heads up

    Again thanks.
     
    Susanstoy91 likes this.
  6. remyruff
    Offline

    remyruff Long time member

    Joined:
    Feb 12, 2009
    Messages:
    257
    Likes Received:
    911
    Trophy Points:
    103
    Gender:
    Male
    Location: (Country, Region - and perhaps even City?):
    Los Cabos
    Local Time:
    9:49 PM
    Reliable news for the US can be found on NPR.org
    The measures taken by many unprepared government's vary drastically.

    Only a few countries in the world have the resources to marginally manage the outbreak may it be based on capacity or general public health. Germany comes to mind at the moment.
    The situation is different elsewhere.
    It is anyone's guess what desperate governments and leaders decide shortly.
    So far plenty of errors have been made and there may be more, unfortunately we are at theirs and the virus mercy and we remain hopeful that they start listening to the experts. Like Senator Burr that rang the silent Alarm only to get the buzzer.
    Instead he liquidated his portfolios.
     
  7. RhiannonT
    Offline

    RhiannonT Long term member

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2017
    Messages:
    501
    Likes Received:
    1,346
    Trophy Points:
    123
    Home Page:
    Local Time:
    3:49 PM
    More and more countries are now going into almost full lockdown outside of essential services. We'll likely get to that point in Australia in the next couple of days - if the decision isn't made by the federal government, then it seems likely that each state will do it on their own.

    There's lots of talk here about the government not acting quickly enough. Could they have announced a total lockdown from day 1? Yes. But they didn't. Instead they provided guidance and instruction to people - stay home if you can, stay 1.5m away from people, put restrictions on how many people can gather indoor and outdoor, wash your hands.....all pretty easy instructions. Unfortunately people aren't capable of using common sense. The scenes at Bondi Beach the other day were disgraceful. The biggest problem hasn't been the government and the actions they have or haven't taken, it's the people. Clearly one of the biggest mistakes made was the leaders greatly overestimated the common sense of the general population.
     
    MRS.Lilith likes this.
  8. Jessica Alexander
    Offline

    Jessica Alexander Trans woman not a mistress or Dom

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2016
    Messages:
    2,252
    Likes Received:
    4,571
    Trophy Points:
    143
    Gender:
    Female
    Location: (Country, Region - and perhaps even City?):
    Houston
    Local Time:
    4:49 AM
    We just bought testing equipment that can do 64 Covid19 tests every 45 minutes. Hoping to have our mobile lab set up next week.
     
  9. bondinchas
    Offline

    bondinchas Long term member

    Joined:
    Feb 15, 2016
    Messages:
    2,149
    Likes Received:
    3,120
    Trophy Points:
    143
    Gender:
    Male
    Location: (Country, Region - and perhaps even City?):
    UK
    Local Time:
    4:49 AM
    One thing is for certain.
    With no cure and no vaccine, more people are going to die from this virus than died in World War Two.
     
  10. bondinchas
    Offline

    bondinchas Long term member

    Joined:
    Feb 15, 2016
    Messages:
    2,149
    Likes Received:
    3,120
    Trophy Points:
    143
    Gender:
    Male
    Location: (Country, Region - and perhaps even City?):
    UK
    Local Time:
    4:49 AM
    Some notes on filtees post.
    Don't use rubbish off the net, refer to official sites for information on Covid-19.
    If you learn and/or use invalid information, you will put yourself and others at risk.
    Amongst other things wrong with that post...

    - Holding breath is NOT a valid test for Covid-19.
    - Heat over 27C does not kill it (internal body temperature is 10 degrees higher than that!)
    - 400 nanometers is the size of the virus - That is NOT large, it is the same as the wavelength of visible light! Cloth and paper face masks do NOT prevent you catching it, they're only partially useful for reducing (not eliminating) the spread of a cough from someone who does have the virus. Face masks can make you more likely to contract the virus for different reasons, they install a false sense of security, and they can act as a reservoir of the virus which is then transferred to yourself and others through poor contamination control.

    Of course, don't believe me (I'm just a guy on the internet), check the official websites yourself.
     
  11. Bonobo
    Offline

    Bonobo Long term member

    Joined:
    May 4, 2018
    Messages:
    270
    Likes Received:
    446
    Trophy Points:
    73
    Gender:
    Male
    Local Time:
    12:49 AM
    I hope you are dead wrong, estimates are about 70 million dead in the war. Sadly we will see millions at the very least and I to believe 70 million is a possibility.
     
  12. PouchPantyLover
    Offline

    PouchPantyLover Long term member

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2017
    Messages:
    1,203
    Likes Received:
    2,258
    Trophy Points:
    133
    Gender:
    Male
    Location: (Country, Region - and perhaps even City?):
    Hawaii
    Local Time:
    6:49 PM
    I'm starting to wonder about the flattening trajectory of growth with the virus. There are several possible theories on this that I'm aware of. The main one is that the numbers of people actually infected with the virus are significantly higher than reported. This means the mortality rate and serious complications rate is significantly lower than reported. I'm not advocating spring break on the beach in Florida. We are sheltering in place for the most part. I think there is some grounds for a little hope though.
     
  13. Bonobo
    Offline

    Bonobo Long term member

    Joined:
    May 4, 2018
    Messages:
    270
    Likes Received:
    446
    Trophy Points:
    73
    Gender:
    Male
    Local Time:
    12:49 AM

    Italy is at a 10 percent death rate. If we let this over run our hospitals (and we are trending that way) we will see death rates close to that.
     
  14. L-u-c-y
    Offline

    Staff Member Owner of Chastity Mansion Administrator Verified Female

    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2015
    Messages:
    4,866
    Likes Received:
    34,245
    Trophy Points:
    163
    Gender:
    Female
    Location: (Country, Region - and perhaps even City?):
    Oxford, England
    Local Time:
    4:49 AM
    That's 10% of reported cases. Most cases will not be reported, and some will never know they've had the virus.
     
  15. PouchPantyLover
    Offline

    PouchPantyLover Long term member

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2017
    Messages:
    1,203
    Likes Received:
    2,258
    Trophy Points:
    133
    Gender:
    Male
    Location: (Country, Region - and perhaps even City?):
    Hawaii
    Local Time:
    6:49 PM
    So what I was referring to is the flattening growth rate of new cases. See chart below for Italy. Some will say the trail off is due to social distancing policies, but even if you look at Iran the number of cases is trending the same way and they've done little to nothing in that regard. China has had no new cases for about three weeks. If this virus is as contagious as all of that why is that happening? China still had about 20,000 active cases when their new case rate went to zero. How could they achieve a 0% spread? All of the most dire predictions are based on straight line growth, yet mounting evidence is pointing to a growth peak and leveling off. Most of the higher death rate in Italy is due to critically ill people not getting medical attention due to an overwhelmed health care system. That's why shelter in place now is so critical. It allows health care systems to ramp up preparedness. I think there might (stress might) be a silver lining in current data trends. Probably better if it stays out of main stream media so people take the current dire warnings to heart. Stay safe :+1:

    upload_2020-3-24_15-17-55.png
     
  16. Nau
    Offline

    Nau New member

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2019
    Messages:
    5
    Likes Received:
    2
    Trophy Points:
    3
    Gender:
    Male
    Local Time:
    5:49 AM
    #66 Nau, Mar 25, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2020
    I agree that most cases will not be reported, and some will never know they've had the virus.

    But in my opinion, the death rate of those that have been reported, it would be calculated with the resolved cases (recovered and deaths), not with the total reported, because many cases are still active (and some of them critical).

    For example, in the case of Italy, if we add recovered cases and deaths, the result is 15,146 resolved cases. If 6820 of them are deaths. That's a staggering 45% death rate for reported cases resolved.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    I also agree that those high death rates are due to the overwhelmed of the health care system.
     
  17. Shimone
    Offline

    Shimone Long term member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2011
    Messages:
    595
    Likes Received:
    331
    Trophy Points:
    73
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    management consultant
    Location: (Country, Region - and perhaps even City?):
    Singapore
    Local Time:
    5:49 AM
    Even in germany due to a lack of test capacities many reported cases will only be put in isolation if they do not show heavy symptoms or are in a high risk group. Therefore those people will not get confirmed and therefore will not show up in the statistic.
    Now think about test strategies, capacities and statistics in other countries...
     
  18. Nau
    Offline

    Nau New member

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2019
    Messages:
    5
    Likes Received:
    2
    Trophy Points:
    3
    Gender:
    Male
    Local Time:
    5:49 AM
    Due to this overwhelmed of the health care system, they only test at risk population and that greatly increases the death rate in the statistic.
     
    Lazlo Toth likes this.
  19. Bonobo
    Offline

    Bonobo Long term member

    Joined:
    May 4, 2018
    Messages:
    270
    Likes Received:
    446
    Trophy Points:
    73
    Gender:
    Male
    Local Time:
    12:49 AM

    Agreed but that then brings up the second and third wave questions no?
     
  20. Achedlock17
    Offline

    Achedlock17 Long term member

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2017
    Messages:
    386
    Likes Received:
    119
    Trophy Points:
    53
    Gender:
    Male
    Local Time:
    4:49 AM
    Prior to the 2nd and 3rd wave we can continue to build {ICU+ventilator+trained staff} capacity ("capacity"). At some point we will get comfortable that even with normal social contact we have enough capacity to treat all those who need it in subsequent waves. Yes, sadly even then some will die but we all die of something, and all we hope for is that the best treatment available is provided. In parallel we will become increasingly likely to find pharmaceutical interventions that reduce the intensity of the disease, and possibly eventually a vaccine. The only stable exit strategy though is to have enough capacity ASAP.
     
    bondinchas likes this.
  21. Lazlo Toth
    Offline

    Lazlo Toth C/D on the TomAllen-Rectrix scale: 9/9

    Joined:
    Apr 7, 2019
    Messages:
    2,830
    Likes Received:
    4,733
    Trophy Points:
    143
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    Contractor
    Location: (Country, Region - and perhaps even City?):
    Upstate South Carolina
    Local Time:
    9:49 PM
    That is an extremely important point. The poor people who have died are in NO way a random sample.
     
  22. sandman9355
    Offline

    sandman9355 Junior Member

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2008
    Messages:
    347
    Likes Received:
    347
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Local Time:
    5:49 AM
    Second and third waves don't seem that dangerous, initial reports I've seen suggest the virus mutates slowly, so the rapid year-to-year flu-style changes are reasonably unlikely.

    However, I wouldn't dismiss the importance of social distancing the way PouchPantyLover did, as it seems to be the main reason why the numbers of cases don't rise that rapidly in many countries now. And never forget one thing - this is a geometric progression. Even if you push the increase to 5% per day, 10,000 cases today will become some 40k cases in a month and 160k cases in two.

    And suppose 90% of cases go undetected and only 2% of diagnosed cases die without modern life support - if this hits 40% of the US population, and remember those are somewhat conservative numbers, we're talking about 250k people needing ICU beds. AFAIK the whole of US has less than half that many ICU beds, and when you factor in that say half of those beds are already needed for people who'd die otherwise of other causes...

    We can either work hard to flatten the curve, or hope it flattens itself and pray it does, because if it doesn't, we're talking about 100k+ deaths in US alone.
     
  23. PouchPantyLover
    Offline

    PouchPantyLover Long term member

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2017
    Messages:
    1,203
    Likes Received:
    2,258
    Trophy Points:
    133
    Gender:
    Male
    Location: (Country, Region - and perhaps even City?):
    Hawaii
    Local Time:
    6:49 PM
    To be perfectly clear I never dismissed the importance of social distancing, in fact I said -

    I was merely pointing out that Iran and Italy have had similar new case trajectories despite the fact that Iran did not take the more draconian measures on that front. Both are still a hot mess.
     
  24. Bonobo
    Offline

    Bonobo Long term member

    Joined:
    May 4, 2018
    Messages:
    270
    Likes Received:
    446
    Trophy Points:
    73
    Gender:
    Male
    Local Time:
    12:49 AM
    We don’t really know much about Iran, but it is not the same as Italy. As much as I hate to say it Trump has a valid point. Italy was overwhelmed quickly in part because of Chinese tourists and industry workers coming into the country. I assume Iran does not have this going on.
     
  25. filltee
    Offline

    filltee Junior Member

    Joined:
    May 21, 2010
    Messages:
    3,378
    Likes Received:
    2,502
    Trophy Points:
    143
    Gender:
    Male
    Location: (Country, Region - and perhaps even City?):
    Sheffield. South Yorkshire UK
    Local Time:
    4:49 AM
    you not agreeing with something does not make it fake news especially as it was never inteded to be read as news.

    Stands to reason if your mouth is dry you will be more likely to inhale a germ than if its moist

    Im not getting into an argument I posted the info I was given both here and elsewhere ... the majority of people that have commented or messaged me personally accept it for what it is just some more info and advice... the way this thing seems to be going Im not about to dismiss anything without giving it some thought.


    There is a lot of misinformation about, presumably some deliberate, some through ignorance or misunderstanding. Conspiracy theories abound too. Especially as to where it all started and how and who might be behind it.

    I have always enjoyed reading about conspiracies real and alleged .. which does not mean I believe them all but some are food for thought.

    speaking of which
    Most people here are capable of independent thought so make this what you will
    https://abc14news.com/2020/03/24/21-million-chinese-cellphone-users-disappear-in-three-months/
     
  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.
    Dismiss Notice